HEI-Lab project at Lusófona University, funded by the "la Caixa" Foundation, to study how parental disputes after separation become persistent

The project TRAJECT – How Child Custody Disputes Become High-Conflict: A Longitudinal Systems Analysis, led by Diogo Lamela, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Psychology and Education of Lusófona University and researcher at HEI-Lab, has been selected for funding under the Social Research Call 2026, promoted by the Social Observatory of the «la Caixa» Foundation. TRAJECT was one of 17 projects selected from 700 applications submitted by institutions from Portugal and Spain.

Persistent disputes concerning the exercise of parental responsibilities can prolong instability in children’s lives, increase the burden on courts, and repeatedly mobilise technical services and other public resources. However, cases with a higher likelihood of escalation or reactivation are often identified only after conflict has already become entrenched. TRAJECT aims to generate evidence that will enable the earlier identification of different trajectories and the tailoring of responses to the characteristics and evolution of each case.

The research will analyse a random sample of 500 court cases from two major Portuguese judicial districts, tracking their development over a period of 24 months. The project will identify trajectories of escalation, stabilisation, reduction and resolution, examine the initial factors associated with each trajectory, and estimate, for the first time, their respective public costs. The longitudinal analysis of court cases will be complemented by interviews with judges and other justice system professionals.

Expected outcomes include a model for the early differentiation of conflict trajectories, a classification and reassessment protocol designed for professionals, a scenario-based training model for practitioners, and public policy recommendations aimed at justice systems and services working with families. These tools may support more timely monitoring, responses proportionate to the evolution of cases, and more informed use of judicial and technical resources.

TRAJECT will be developed by a multidisciplinary team from Lusófona University, including researchers from HEI-Lab, CEAD and Intrepid Lab, as well as international researchers, including Professor Laura Korhonen, Director of Barnafrid – Swedish National Centre for Knowledge on Violence Against Children at Linköping University, and Dr Donna O’Leary, researcher at Tusla – Irish Child and Family Agency.

The project will also have an advisory board comprising a Judge Counsellor of the Supreme Court of Justice and representatives from the Board of the Portuguese Psychologists’ Association and the Social Security Institute.